What Most Iranians Think: Very Unhappy About the Economy and Trump, but Not Much Else

The recent outburst of demonstrations, especially in parts of Iran where support for the Islamic regime has been strongest in the past, has led to speculation that the Islamic Republic has entered a death spiral owing to its economic failure, severe limitations on democracy, and restrictions of civil liberties and personal freedoms. This belief of impending regime change might someday turn out to be accurate, but the best evidence suggests most Iranians today are deeply dissatisfied with the economy and little else.

The Iranian government’s media censorship, difficulties foreign journalists have in having unfettered access to strife-torn areas, and deceptive propaganda videos manufactured and skillfully edited by both the regime and its opponents, have made it difficult to assess the size of demonstrations and if they are subsiding or growing. This does not mean, however, that no information exists about an essential element in assessing Iran’s future: the likely state of Iranian public opinion. In fact, such data exists. It has simply been ignored by journalists, either out of ignorance that it is available, or its implications do not fit a preexisting narrative that the regime is only able to maintain power through repression and blaming foreign agitators for its shortcomings.

The University of Maryland’s Center for International and Security Studies has been carrying out sophisticated public opinion polling of Iran since 2006. During the past year, it conducted its most recent surveys of randomly selected adults throughout the country. The final one was taken in July 2017, after the re-election of President Hassan Rouhani, who received 57 percent of the vote against his rivals in an election with just over 70 percent turnout—far higher than the 58 percent who voted in the US in 2016.

Respondents were asked what the implications of Rouhani’s re-election were regarding what they believed most Iranians wanted. The following are percentages they felt most citizens strongly agreed or somewhat agreed with:

1. Rouhani’s foreign policy 83 percent

2. Rouhani’s economic policies 81 percent

3. Want religion to play a lesser role 35 percent

4. Disapprove of the ideals of the Islamic Revolution 24 percent

Regarding the latter two questions, only 13 percent strongly believed most Iranians wanted religion to play a lesser role the society and 7 percent had the same level of certainty that most Iranians disapproved of the ideals of the Islamic Revolution.

The poll also asked the respondents directly about their foreign policy preferences. Although protesters’ calling for the government to stop spending money and risking lives in Syria were observed and commented upon in the western media, most Iranians support the regime’s foreign policy. Sixty-six percent thought it was unacceptable to recognize Israel; 61 percent rejected the view that missiles should no longer be tested; 58 believed it was unacceptable to stop helping Syria’s leader, Bashar Assad, and about the same percentage held similar views regarding aid to Hezbollah.

On the other hand, 76 percent of Iranians initially approved of the nuclear deal with the US and several European countries. However, support has declined to 67 percent because it is believed that the US is still blocking foreign investment needed for improving the Iranian economy.

Although President Donald Trump has expressed great sympathy for what he perceives as a mass uprising to free Iranians from tyranny, the objects of his affection do not trust him. The pollsters summarize Iranian views of the incoming Trump Administration in a poll taken just after the 2016 American election.

“The same respondents were then asked this question about their expectations of then president-elect Trump. A full two-thirds (68%) believed Trump’s policies toward Iran would turn out to be hostile (completely, 50%). Only 16 percent thought they would be neither hostile nor friendly, and just 3 percent expected policies that were friendly.”

If relatively few Iranians favor regime change, what were the motivating factors behind the protests? It appears to have overwhelmingly been the state of the Iranian economy. The survey documented the level of despair. About 64 percent described the economy as “bad.” with 34 percent labeling it “very bad.” Only about a third considered it “good.” In June 2017 half of the respondents thought it was “getting worse.” When asked what President Rouhani’s top priorities should be 86 percent said it should be “reducing unemployment”; 79 percent “fighting corruption”; 74 percent “helping the poor.” Only 26 percent put “increasing civil liberties” in that category.

Despair is a necessary but not sufficient precondition for protest. There is some evidence that infighting between different factions of the political elite (Rouhani and his hardline opponents) played a substantial role. But the protests eventually took on a life of their own. The authorities eventually cracked down with violence and arrests.

It is important that Americans understand what actual Iranian think and not substitute imaginary ones for them. This is especially true for our government officials, though it is hard to separate their actual beliefs from those of political lobbyists and donors. The clear majority of Iranians want exactly what Americans do---a good economy, not revolutionary change. They believe their leaders are failing to provide that and past US Administrations, and especially the current one, have made things worse.

Let's block ads! (Why?)

Read Again https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/what-most-iranians-think-very-unhappy-about-the-economy_us_5a536472e4b0cd114bdb34ef

Bagikan Berita Ini