BEIRUT—The demise of Islamic State is intensifying a scramble among foreign powers in Syria, raising the risk that diverging strategic and commercial interests could lead to a wider regional war.
In the past month, a U.S. airstrike in the eastern part of the country killed an unknown number of Russian military contractors; Israel hit Iranian military installations deep inside Syria; while Turkey waged a campaign against Kurdish militias in the north.
The volatile situation is a result of how the fight against Islamic State was conducted, with players seizing territory, arming proxies and aggravating long-existing ethnic and political divisions. The result: a series of flashpoints where clashes could erupt among major powers and spill over Syria’s borders.
“No one wants that war, but everyone is ready for it and expects it,” said Emile Hokayem, a Syria expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London.
50 miles
TURKEY
50 km
Afrin
Hasakah
Aleppo
Raqqa
Idlib
IRAQ
Deir Ezzour
SYRIA
Mediterranean
Sea
Homs
Palmyra
LEBANON
Areas of control
Russia/Iran/Syrian regime
Damascus
Syrian Kurds
Opposition
Opposition/Turkey
JORDAN
ISRAEL
Islamic State
50 miles
TURKEY
50 km
Afrin
Hasakah
Aleppo
Raqqa
Idlib
IRAQ
Deir Ezzour
SYRIA
Homs
Palmyra
LEBANON
Areas of control
Russia/Iran/Syrian regime
Damascus
Syrian Kurds
Opposition
JORDAN
Opposition/Turkey
Islamic State
50 miles
TURKEY
50 km
Afrin
Hasakah
Aleppo
Raqqa
Idlib
IRAQ
Deir Ezzour
SYRIA
Med.
Sea
Homs
Palmyra
LEBANON
Areas of control
Russia/Iran/Syrian regime
Damascus
Syrian Kurds
Opposition
Opposition/Turkey
JORDAN
ISR.
Islamic State
Areas of control
Russia/Iran/Syrian regime
Syrian Kurds
Islamic State
Opposition/Turkey
Opposition
TURKEY
Afrin
Raqqa
Aleppo
Idlib
Deir Ezzour
SYRIA
Homs
Palmyra
LEB.
IRAQ
Damascus
50 miles
JORDAN
50 km
Note: Areas of control as of Feb. 27
Source: Institute for the Study of War
Russia has emerged as a dominant force, after intervening to turn the tide in the multisided conflict in favor of the government of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Yet even Russian President Vladimir Putin, who in December declared victory but has kept his country deeply involved, has limited control.
With the backing of Russia and Iran, Mr. Assad has largely prevailed against rebels trying to oust him, relying on ferocious violence to recapture territory and cornering his remaining opponents in pockets like Eastern Ghouta on the outskirts of Damascus and in the northwestern province of Idlib.
Other hot spots are in the north, where Turkey is trying to drive back Syrian Kurdish militants, and the east, where the U.S. is fighting the last significant pocket of Islamic State fighters. In the south, Israel could be drawn into the conflict by responding to the increased presence of forces loyal to Iran.
Earlier this month, U.S. forces launched air strikes and an artillery bombardment when fighters, including Russian military contractors, moved to occupy a gas field near the eastern town of Deir Ezzour. U.S. officials said about 100 people were killed.
Moscow played down the incident, with Russia’s foreign ministry acknowledging a handful of deaths. Russia was likely seeking to avoid escalating tensions, wrote Pavel K. Baev, a nonresident senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, last week.
Russia and the U.S. have also come close to clashing in the air. Since October, Russian planes have breached the U.S.-controlled western side of the Euphrates River half a dozen times a day, said Lt. Col. Earl Brown, Central Command spokesman.
On Dec. 13, U.S. F-22 Raptors intercepted two Russian Sukhoi SU-25s and for 40 minutes fired flares and used an emergency channel to get the Russians to depart the U.S.-controlled airspace. At one point, American and Russian planes nearly collided.
“It’s become increasingly tough for our pilots to discern whether Russian pilots’ actions are deliberate or if these are just honest mistakes,” Lt. Col. Brown said. “The coalition’s greatest concern is that we could shoot down a Russian aircraft because its actions are seen as a threat to our air or ground forces.” The U.S. hasn’t downed a Russian aircraft in more than 60 years and doing so would greatly risk retaliation.
Iran, the other staunch ally of the Assad regime, has consolidated what it calls a “front of resistance” against Israel and the U.S. This month, Israel made its deepest foray into the war when it shot down an Iranian drone over the Golan Heights and went on to bomb a series of Iranian and Syrian installations deep into Syria. An Israeli jet was shot down by antiaircraft missiles during one of the raids.
Israel’s bombardments likely required consent from Russia, which controls the airspace and sat back as the Israeli jets took off and hit their targets. A subsequent wave of Israeli jets was suddenly called off, most likely after Russia decided to intervene, said Amos Yadlin, a former head of military intelligence in Israel.
“I think the Russians wanted to de-escalate,” said Mr. Yadlin, who heads the Tel Aviv-based Institute for National Security Studies. “It’s in their interests to keep stability in Syria as much as possible.” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office confirmed the leader held a call with Mr. Putin but declined to comment on whether Moscow had intervened.
Some degree of instability can work in Russia’s interest—in that Russia’s rivals weaken each other, but as long as survival of the Assad regime isn’t threatened.
When Turkish planes and ground troops in January began pummeling the Kurdish enclave of Afrin to drive out the Kurdish YPG militia, they did so with silent consent from Russia, which controls the airspace in the northwest. Turkey’s foreign minister said Turkish officials who visited Moscow before the offensive were there to get Russian permission for the maneuvers.
“Russia wants to be the one calibrating what happens on the battlefield,” the analyst Mr. Hokayem said. “The Russians know they cannot coerce everyone. Their goal is that others will weaken each other, and Russia will become more influential in shaping the country afterwards.”
The fighting also benefits Russia because it strains relations between Ankara and the U.S., which fought alongside Syrian Kurds against Islamic State. Turkey threatens to continue eastward from Afrin to Manbij where U.S. Special Forces are based.
The Trump administration has signaled an open-ended U.S. presence in Syria, but it is reluctant to get deeper into direct fighting or mediating the conflict. That disengagement in Syria heightens the risk of a regional war, Mr. Hokayem said. Rival powers need to communicate to diffuse potential clashes but don’t have an obvious channel, absent U.S. mediation.
“Everyone is hoping that the Russians will pick up this role, but we don’t know if they are able or willing to do so,” he said.
—Benoit Faucon and Dov Lieber contributed to this article.
Write to Sune Engel Rasmussen at sune.rasmussen@wsj.com
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