EU Said to Be Close to Winning Exemption from US Steel Tariffs

Steel and aluminum producers such as Argentina, Brazil and South Korea, as well as the European Union, have been lobbying intensely to be exempted from the tariffs, which Mr. Trump has justified on national security grounds. Many of the countries affected have military alliances with the United States.

Steel and aluminum accounts for a relatively small percentage of trade between Europe and the United States. But there is widespread fear among European businesses that the tariffs would provoke a worsening trade conflict.

There are already signs that the tensions have had an impact. A closely watched survey of business sentiment by the Ifo Institute in Munich, which was published on Thursday, showed that German managers had become less optimistic. The survey is “a strong signal that recent trade war threats are the main worry of German businesses,” Carsten Brzeski, an economist at ING, said of the report.

European Union officials have already drawn up plans to retaliate against the United States by imposing reciprocal tariffs on a range of goods including pleasure boats, frozen corn and digital flight recorders.

Often, the targeted goods come from places that voted heavily for Mr. Trump.

Playing cards, which are on the list, are an example. The United States Playing Card Company, which supplies casinos around the world, is based in Erlanger, Ky., in a county that voted for Mr. Trump by a nearly 2-to-1 margin.

The tariffs could also have unintended consequences. At least in the short term, they could drive down steel prices in Europe. Producers in countries like Brazil and South Korea would divert steel from the United States to other markets, increasing the supply.

In theory, at least, lower prices would provide a cost advantage to companies in Europe compared to their American competitors.

“If the steel prices are lower,” said Gabriel Felbermayr, an economist at the Ifo Institute, “that is always good for the consumers.”

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