Mariano Rajoy Faces Ouster in Spanish No-Confidence Vote

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Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy of Spain, one of Europe’s longest-serving leaders, is likely to be removed from office over a corruption scandal on Friday.CreditFrancisco Seco/Associated Press

By Raphael Minder

June 1, 2018

MADRID — Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy of Spain on Friday faced a no-confidence vote that he appeared set to lose, which would oust him from office over a major corruption scandal within his conservative party.

Pedro Sánchez, the leader of the main opposition Socialist Party, is set to replace Mr. Rajoy as prime minister as soon as this weekend. But with Mr. Sánchez’s party holding just 84 of the 350 seats in Spain’s Parliament, his mandate could be short-lived, paving the way for another Spanish general election.

The abrupt leadership switch looming over Spain would amplify the political uncertainty in southern Europe, coming on the heels of the recent power struggle in Italy. The developments in Italy have rattled financial markets and resulted in a new government in which two parties with a history of antagonism toward the European Union are to take power.

The situation in Spain is different from Italy’s populist upheaval, though, since none of Spain’s main parties contest the country’s membership of the European single currency or promise an immigration clampdown. Rather, Mr. Rajoy’s demise is the result of a long-building corruption scandal that has tainted his conservative Popular Party and comes amid a continuing territorial and constitutional crisis over Catalonia.

The no-confidence vote on Friday looks set to end the political career of one of Europe’s longest-serving leaders.

For the past two years, Mr. Rajoy has been at the helm of a minority government, reliant on the support of Spain’s fourth-largest political group, Ciudadanos, and attempting to fend off an independence drive in Catalonia.

Ultimately, corruption in Mr. Rajoy’s party, rather than his inability to resolve the Catalan conflict, appears set to prove his undoing.

Both the timing and the manner of his likely removal — in Parliament rather than in an election — were unexpected. Mr. Sánchez pounced on a court ruling last week that sentenced various business people and politicians, including a former treasurer of Mr. Rajoy’s party, to prison on charges of operating a kickback scheme.

Mr. Sánchez demanded a parliamentary vote of no confidence, and then managed to outflank opposition to his candidacy from Ciudadanos, which instead wanted a snap election.

To stay in office, Mr. Sánchez will need to maintain the support of the far-left Podemos party, as well as nationalist lawmakers from Catalonia and the Basque region.

The no-confidence vote follows one-and-a-half days of tense parliamentary debate, whose turning point came on Thursday afternoon, when the Basque nationalists agreed to join Catalan separatist lawmakers in voting against Mr. Rajoy. That about-face came only a week after the same Basque lawmakers used their pivotal votes to approve Mr. Rajoy’s new national budget, which includes a generous financial deal for the Basques.

During the debate, Mr. Sánchez pledged to hold talks with the Catalan separatist politicians who have been at loggerheads with Mr. Rajoy for years. But he didn’t say how he planned to resolve a territorial conflict that has only become more tense after Catalonia voted to secede from Spain late last year, a move that Mr. Rajoy blocked.

The likely nomination of Mr. Sánchez as prime minister caps a remarkable comeback. Last year, he was unexpectedly re-elected to the leadership of his Socialist party, seven months after being ousted in a party revolt and also abandoning his seat in Parliament.

Follow Raphael Minder on Twitter: @RaphaelMinder.