Jim Mattis appears sidelined again as Trump moves to scrap arms treaty with Russia

FAREWELL TO (SOME) ARMS CONTROL: President Trump has abruptly announced he’s ready to scrap a three-decades-old treaty with Russia that has banned the development and deployment of land-based intermediate-range missiles. Speaking to reporters before boarding Air Force One after a rally in Nevada Saturday night, Trump said Russia’s been in violation of the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty “for many years.” “We're not going to let them violate a nuclear agreement and go out and do weapons and we're not allowed to.”

WHAT THE TREATY SAYS: The treaty was signed by President Ronald Reagan and Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev in 1987. It is credited with eliminating an entire class of nuclear weapons that were deployed in Europe by banning nuclear and conventional ground-launched ballistic and cruise missiles with ranges of 500 to 5,500 km (310 to 3,417 miles). The U.S. says Russia began violating the treaty in 2014 by testing a land-based cruise missile — 9M729 — and then deploying the missile system last year.

WHAT MATTIS SAID: It was just over two weeks ago that Defense Secretary Jim Mattis, after briefing NATO defense ministers in Brussels, seemed to indicate he preferred to pressure Russia to comply with the treaty rather than scrap it. Mattis told reporters that while the INF Treaty is between only the U.S. and Russia, any response would be coordinated with NATO since the missiles directly threaten European security. “This will be a decision obviously made in concert with our allies by the president,” Mattis said. “We are trying to bring them still back into compliance. And now is the time; it's gone on long enough.”

In a news conference before the NATO meeting, U.S. Ambassador Kay Bailey Hutchison also stressed the U.S was keeping its side of the bargain. “We are trying not to do anything that would violate the treaty on our side, which allows research, but not going forward into development, and we are carefully keeping the INF Treaty requirements on our side, while Russia is violating.”

WHAT BOLTON SAYS: National security adviser John Bolton has been a longtime critic of the treaty, arguing as far back as 2012 in a Wall Street Journal op-ed that other nations not covered by the treaty, in particular China, have been steadily increasing their missile capabilities. “We must either expand the INF Treaty's membership or abrogate it entirely so that we can rebuild our own deterrent capabilities,” he wrote at the time.

WHAT TRUMP SAID: Trump seems to have been persuaded by Bolton’s argument. Here’s what he said verbatim, courtesy of Reuters. “Unless Russia comes to us, and China comes to us, and they all come to us and they say, ‘Let’s really get smart, and let’s none of us develop those weapons. But if Russia’s doing and China’s doing it, and we’re adhering to the agreement, that’s unacceptable. So we have a tremendous amount of money to play with on our military, $700 billion plus $716 billion. So Russia has not adhered to the agreement, so we are going to terminate the agreement and we are going to develop the weapons. If they get smart, and others get smart and they say ‘let’s not develop these horrible nuclear weapons,’ I would be extremely happy with that. But as long as somebody is violating that agreement, then we are not going to be the only ones to adhere to it.”

GRAHAM CONCURS: “Absolutely the right move. The Russians have been cheating. The Chinese are building up their missiles. I like President Trump being tough,” said Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham. “I like being tough on Russia. And walking away from this deal is a good decision because the Russians never honored their end of the bargain. And the Chinese are moving forward with their weapons program. And we need to counter it.”

WHAT RUSSIA SAYS: Russia wasted no time slamming the U.S. "We condemn the continuing attempts to achieve Russia’s concessions through blackmail, moreover in such an issue that has importance for international security and security in the nuclear weapons sphere [and] for maintaining strategic stability,” Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov told the official news agency TASS.

Ryabkov added: “Unlike our American colleagues, we understand all the seriousness of the issue and its significance for security and strategic stability.”

WHAT CRITICS SAY: There was no shortage of domestic criticism either.

“I think it's a big, big mistake to flippantly get out of this historic agreement that Reagan and Gorbachev signed. This was a big part of Reagan's legacy and we should not get rid of it. It was an important step. We went from 64,000 nuclear-tipped missiles down to 15,000. It has been an historic agreement,” said Republican Sen. Rand Paul on Fox News Sunday. “I've asked the president, and I advised him privately and in public, that he should appoint nuclear negotiators, nuclear arms control negotiators to actually work with the [Russians]. We have complaints that they are not in compliance. They also have complaints that some of our missile launchers in Europe are not in compliance. Let's have a rational discussion with experts on this and see if we can resolve it.”

“There is no doubt that Russia is responsible for the degradation of the INF Treaty. However, withdrawing from this treaty without a comprehensive strategy for addressing its underlying strategic implications and without consulting Congress or our allies threatens long-term United States’ national security interests, said Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez, ranking member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. “The president could have worked within the parameters of the INF Treaty to best safeguard our national security and our allies, but instead he’s handing a political victory to Vladimir Putin and further isolating the United States on the international stage.”

“Trump’s move to blow-up the INF Treaty is unnecessary and self-defeating wrong turn that could lead to an unconstrained and dangerous nuclear arms competition with Russia,” wrote Daryl Kimball and Kingston Reif of the Arms Control Association. “The breakdown of the agreement and uncertain future of the 2010 New Strategic Arms Reductions Treaty (New START) creates the most serious nuclear arms control crisis in decades.”

HAPPENING TODAY: Bolton travels to Moscow for two days of talks with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, and perhaps Putin himself. The big problem for Bolton is even if he could bring Russia to heel with the threat of ending the 1987 treaty, there’s no indication China would want to join the agreement and curtail its growing arsenal of land-based missiles.

Good Monday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre), National Security Writer Travis J. Tritten (@travis_tritten) and Senior Editor David Brown (@dave_brown24). Email us here for tips, suggestions, calendar items and anything else. If a friend sent this to you and you’d like to sign up, click here. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter @dailyondefense.

HAPPENING TOMORROW: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is promising to lay out all the evidence tomorrow that will conclusively show Saudi Arabia murdered dissident journalist Jamal Khashoggi, and then lied about it. Erdogan said yesterday he will "go into detail" about what Turkey’s investigation uncovered in a speech before ruling party members in parliament.

The Saudis are blaming Khashoggi’s death on an argument that escalated between the journalist and unidentified men inside the Saudi consulate and have set up a commission, led by the crown prince, to investigate the death.

On Fox yesterday, the Saudi foreign minister insisted Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman was not involved. “The crown prince has denied this. The crown prince was not aware of this. Even the senior leadership of the intelligence service was not aware of this,” said Adel al-Jubeir. “This was an operation that was a rogue operation. This was an operation where individuals exceeded the authorities and responsibilities they had. They made the mistake when they killed Jamal Khashoggi in the consulate and they tried to cover up for it.”

NOT BUYING IT: Almost no one in Congress believes the Saudi version of events. “The intel that I have read is obviously not as exhaustive as the intel that the president sees. But I think the cover stories from the Saudis are a mess,” said Republican Sen. Ben Sasse on CNN. “You don't bring a bone saw to an accidental fistfight inside an embassy in Turkey — or a consulate in Turkey. So the Saudis have said a whole bunch of crap that's not right, accurate or true.”

“They have lost all credibility as it relates to explaining what has happened,” said Republican Sen. Bob Corker. “I don't think anybody believes that story.”

“And I do hope, over the next few days, we will actually have the tapes that the Turks have. I know we haven't received them yet,” Corker said on CNN.

BLOCKING ARMS SALES: On Fox yesterday, Paul predicted that if there were a vote to cut arms sales to Saudi Arabia in the next couple weeks, it would pass "overwhelmingly."

"I think the powers that be will try to prevent us from having that vote,” he said. “They have to announce a specific case of arms being sold and my prediction is they will avoid doing that as long as possible."

“We don't do arms sales for the purposes of the profits from arms sales. We do arms sales because we want to be allied with different countries around the globe that believe in our values,” Sasse said on CNN. “We need to recognize that arms sales are always a means to an end. They're not the end. The end is the American idea. And the end is stability in the world so that problems abroad don't come home to roost for us.”

ATTACK WOUNDED U.S. GENERAL: An attack last week that killed two senior Afghan officials and possibly targeted the top U.S. commander also wounded an American one-star general. The Washington Post first reported that Brig. Gen. Jeffrey Smiley suffered at least one gunshot wound during a shooting in the Kandahar governor’s compound claimed by the Taliban. Col. Dave Butler, the spokesman for U.S. Forces-Afghanistan, appeared to confirm Smiley was wounded on Twitter Sunday, after taking some criticism from a Post reporter for not disclosing the incident sooner.

“Yikes. No one was trying to ‘cover it up.’ We don’t usually release the names of the wounded to respect their privacy etc. [Washington Post reporter Dan Lamothe] decided to do it for us. Plenty of outlets had it and decided not to release. I don’t do cover ups,” Butler tweeted. “I was less concerned about looks, more concerned about the guy’s privacy and the expectation we create for others.” The gunman also wounded a U.S. civilian and a foreign contractor.

The U.S. military denies a Taliban claim that top U.S. and NATO Commander Gen. Scott Miller was a target of the attack, which happened outside just as the meeting was breaking up. “The violence was obviously directed at Afghan officials,” Butler tweeted Friday. “The attack was outside and the gunman aimed at Afghan officials.”

Miller told Afghanistan’s TOLO news: “My assessment is that I was not the target. It was a very close confined space. But I don’t assess that I was the target.”

A request for more information to U.S. Forces-Afghanistan went unanswered Friday

‘PRETTY CONFIDENT’ ON KANDAHAR: The assassination of Afghan leaders in Kandahar province won't lessen U.S. support for the war in Afghanistan or deter local security forces in the fight against the Taliban, the top U.S. military commander in the Middle East said Saturday.

Gen. Joseph Votel said the U.S. was "pretty confident that the Afghans will be able to maintain the situation down" in Kandahar, the AP reported.

AFGHAN ELECTIONS: Despite threats from the Taliban, Afghans voted in parliamentary elections over the weekend, with the biggest turnout in Kabul and the lowest in the southern Uruzgan province, according to the AP.

Afghan President Ashraf Ghani also thanked citizens for their participation during a speech carried on state TV. “Afghans did not only show their enemies that they would not surrender to any threats or warnings, but that they also have the power and will to defeat their enemies,”

CANCELED IN KOREA: No Vigilant Ace this year. The December exercise was the latest joint military drill with South Korea to be canceled to make nice with the North amid negotiations over its nuclear program. Mattis and South Korean Minister of Defense Jeong Kyeong-doo made the decision last week “to give the diplomatic process every opportunity to continue,” chief Pentagon spokeswoman Dana White said.

SMALL-SCALE TRAINING EMPHASIS: “I think what we’ll see until we have decided these negotiations with North Korea are not going to be fruitful we’re just going to see a rolling block if you will of cancellations of large military exercises in the area,” said Tom Spoehr, the director of the Center for National Defense at the Heritage Foundation. The next in line could be Foal Eagle, which was delayed last year from its February start date amid the Olympics and a diplomatic thaw with the North.

The cancellations place increasing urgency on the smaller-scale interactions between the U.S. and South Korea forces at the brigade level and below. "My view is actually that the really big exercises are never needed, if and only if, we can replace them with a sufficient number of demanding smaller ones," said Michael O’Hanlon, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution.

THE RUNDOWN

Politico: Newest security worry: Trump without Mattis

Washington Post: Jordan plans to revoke parts of its peace treaty with Israel

Defense News: The US Navy will have to pony up and race the clock to avoid a sealift capacity collapse

Foreign Policy: The Taliban Just Won a Key Battle for Afghanistan’s Future

Defense One: How the Joint Staff Calculated a Defense Program’s Return on Investment

Navy Times: Charged with war crimes and stuck in the brig, a Navy SEAL vows to fight on

New York Times: Gorbachev Calls Trump’s Treaty Withdrawal ‘Not the Work of a Great Mind’

Fox News: Iran sent Hezbollah advanced weapons to turn rockets into precision missiles, new flight data suggests

Breaking Defense: Marines Furiously Cutting Programs As Tighter Budgets Loom

Reuters: Man who foiled Nazi nuclear plan dies aged 99

Military.com: 1st Female Marine to Complete MARSOC's 2nd Phase Is Leaving the Corps

MONDAY | OCT. 22

4 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. An Evening of Naval History with Ian Toll and an Award Presentation by Adm. John Richardson, Chief of Naval Operations. usni.org

TUESDAY | OCT. 23

7 a.m. 11100 Johns Hopkins Rd. Precision Strike Technology Symposium with Vice Adm. Mat Winter, Director of the Joint Strike Fighter Program; Gen. Mike Murray, Commander of Army Futures Command; and Sen. Lisa Murkowski. ndia.org

7:15 a.m. 1700 Army Navy Dr. NDIA Washington, D.C. Chapter Defense Leaders Forum Breakfast with Assistant Navy Secretary James Geurts. ndia.org

8 a.m. 2101 Wilson Blvd. S&ET Division Executive Breakfast. ndia.org

1 p.m. 1789 Massachusetts Ave. NW. Who cares? Foreign Policy and the 2018 Midterm Elections. aei.org

5:30 p.m. 2425 Wilson Blvd. ILW Landpower Education Forum. ausa.org

WEDNESDAY | OCT. 24

7 a.m. 11100 Johns Hopkins Rd. Precision Strike Technology Symposium with Steve Walker, Director of DARPA. ndia.org

8 a.m. 2401 M St NW. Defense Writers Group with Lt. Gen. Nadja West, Army surgeon general.

9 a.m. 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW. Arab Horizons: Is A New Regional Order Possible? carnegieendowment.org

12:30 p.m. Defense Manufacturing as a Means of Localization in MENA with Tom Kelly is the Vice President of Foreign Policy and National Security Affairs at Raytheon. sais-jhu.edu

1 p.m. 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW. China’s Ballistic Missile Submarines and Strategic Stability. carnegieendowment.org

THURSDAY | OCT. 25

7 a.m. 11100 Johns Hopkins Rd. Precision Strike Technology Symposium. ndia.org

7 a.m. 1700 Tysons Blvd. Morrison and Foerster’s 2019 Outlook on National Security and Government Contracting. mofo.com

11:30 a.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW. U.S. policy and the war in Yemen. brookings.edu

3:30 p.m. 1030 15th St. NW. Security in Northern Europe: Deterrence, Defense and Dialogue. atlanticcouncil.org

4:30 p.m. 1740 Massachusetts Ave. NW. A Conversation with Shirin Tahir-Kheli on Her Memoir Before the Age of Prejudice: A Muslim Woman’s National Security Work with Three American Presidents. sais-jhu.edu

FRIDAY | OCT. 26

8:30 a.m. 2300 Wilson Blvd. Military Reporters and Editors Conference with Gen. Joseph Dunford, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff; Deputy Defense Secretary Pat Shanahan; and Coast Guard Commandant Karl Schultz. militaryreporters.org

MONDAY | OCT. 29

12:30 p.m. 1777 F St. NW. Foreign Policy and the 2018 Midterm Elections with James Carville, Mary Matalin and Amy Walter. cfr.org

QUOTE OF THE DAY

“You don't bring a bone saw to an accidental fistfight inside an embassy in Turkey — or a consulate in Turkey. So the Saudis have said a whole bunch of crap that's not right, accurate or true.”

Republican Sen. Ben Sasse, speaking on CNN.

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