EU Court Throws Wrench Into Fraught Brexit Debate - Wall Street Journal

Demonstrators protest against Brexit outside the Houses of Parliament in London, Britain, Nov. 28. Photo: henry nicholls/Reuters

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Laurence Norman in Brussels and

Laurence Norman

The Wall Street Journal

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@laurnorman
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Max Colchester in London

Max Colchester

The Wall Street Journal

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@MaximColch
Max.Colchester@wsj.com

Updated Dec. 4, 2018 9:33 a.m. ET

On the tangled route to Brexit, things just became thornier.

Theresa May’s attempt to push her Brexit deal through a critical parliamentary vote next week was further complicated Tuesday by a court opinion saying the U.K. doesn’t need to seek permission from other members in order to reverse its decision to leave the European Union.

The European Court of Justice’s opinion, which requires confirmation in a final court ruling, says the U.K. can unilaterally stop the process of leaving the EU, something that Brussels and the U.K. government had sought to oppose. A final ruling is expected within the next few weeks. The court generally follows the legal advice but there have been frequent exceptions. If the U.K. were to exercise this right, it would have to do so before March 29 when it is scheduled to quit the EU.

The British Parliament is set to vote on Dec. 11 on whether to ratify the Brexit deal that Prime Minister May spent nearly two years hammering out. The deal has been criticized by lawmakers on both sides of the Brexit debate and Parliament is expected to reject it by a wide margin, so much so that the focus in Westminster is now not on whether the government is defeated, but by how much.

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Mrs. May’s Conservative Party has a working majority of 13 votes in the lower house, thanks to an alliance with a small Northern Irish party. Her government is bracing for a defeat in the Brexit vote with a shortfall of between 50 to 100 votes, analysts say. If there is a landslide defeat, the prime minister could face a vote of no confidence or even resign, they predict

For Mrs. May, the ECJ’s opinion is bitter sweet. One of the key selling points the prime minister makes to wavering lawmakers is that rejecting her deal could mean the U.K. quits the EU in March with no deal at all, causing huge economic disruption. Now, opponents of Brexit can point to Tuesday’s opinion to argue that Britain can avoid that outcome by simply reversing its decision to leave the EU.

However, the opinion does reinforce another key argument Mrs. May is making to anti-EU lawmakers: if they don’t back her deal there may be no Brexit at all.

In his opinion, Advocate General Campos Sanchez-Bordona said international law dictates that a country doesn’t need agreement from the EU’s other members to change its mind on leaving the bloc.

But, he said, a government that asked lawmakers for their consent to start the process of exiting the EU, as the U.K. did, must also seek their permission to backtrack.

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It is unclear whether the British Parliament will explore this avenue unless given an explicit mandate by the British people. That could come either through a second Brexit referendum or a fresh general election where a pro-EU party is elected to govern. Mrs. May has said there shouldn’t be a second referendum. Analysts say she is unlikely to call for a fresh election.

Mrs. May has spent the past week trying to sell her plan to the general public with a whistle-stop tour round the U.K., but with limited success. So far only a quarter of British people support the deal, according to a poll by ComRes. This week, she is focusing on her colleagues in the House of Commons, holding a series of meetings with small clusters of lawmakers and launching five days of debate over the details of her deal.

Adding to the prime minister’s problems is a fight in parliament over whether the government should publish legal advice on its Brexit deal. Opposition lawmakers and some Conservative Brexiteers argue the advice would inform their vote on the Brexit deal next week.

The government is reluctant to set a precedent by publishing confidential advice on key matters of state and the attorney general has said doing so would damage the U.K.’s interests, as it could lay bare its negotiating tactics or offend EU allies.

Lawmakers are expected to vote Tuesday on whether the government is in contempt of parliament by keeping the full advice under wraps. That could, in a worst-case scenario, see the attorney general who is a member of May’s cabinet suspended from the House of Commons.

If the Brexit deal is rejected in the vote scheduled for next week, the government has until Jan.1 to lay out to Parliament what steps it will take next.