BBC political correspondent Norman Smith says Theresa May's friends insist she is "quietly confident" of victory.
The prime minister has decided to up the ante and frame the no confidence vote as a vote on the future of Brexit, he tells the BBC News Channel.
"Mrs May has deliberately chosen to ramp up the stakes. She has made this not a vote about her, but about Brexit and the future of the country," he says.
"Bring me down, in effect, she is saying, and you put Brexit at risk."
A successor will not have time to renegotiate the deal, she suggests, and may have to revoke or delay Article 50, which began the withdrawal process.
Mrs May hopes the strategy will mean Tory MPs will "balk" at the risk that Brexit may not happen, he says.
But her opponents in the party believe "the deal she has got is not acceptable, will not be approved, will go down and therefore this is a crisis looming."
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