In Venezuela, the colectivos' threat to Juan Guaido is growing - Washington Examiner

As pressure builds on Nicolas Maduro to vacate his office, Venezuela's actual president Juan Guaido faces growing physical threats from the so-called "colectivos," a thuggish force that long acted as an enforcer for Maduro's regime.

The colectivos are organized militias that use criminal extortion and other mafia-esque activities to enrich themselves. Blessed with Maduro's support and a free rein from law enforcement, the colectivos have pledged themselves to defending Maduro's rule at all costs. That takes us to the growing threat against Guaido. Because while Guaido is threatened by Maduro's intelligence services and military, those elements fear U.S. retaliation if they act against Guaido. U.S. national security adviser John Bolton has warned that any attack on Guaido would lead to serious U.S. reprisals — a perceived threat of U.S. military intervention. The colectivos, on the other hand, offer Maduro an alternative means of deniable action.

Would they follow an order to attack Guaido? Yes. As the BBC notes, the colectivos see themselves as the heirs of the great Latin American revolutionary, Simon Bolivar. Vested with Bolivar's ideological dedication to total war in defense of the revolution, they view Guadio as a stain to be eradicated. And as Guaido continues paring back Maduro's power by undercutting his support bases, Maduro is more likely to unleash the colectivos against him. Remember, here, that Maduro's mental state is questionable. He may act in irrational ways.

President Trump or a senior official such as John Bolton should clarify the situation for Maduro and the colectivos.

They should make clear that any attack on Guaido by the colectivos, or even any unfortunate accident that should befall Guaido, will be regarded as an attack by Maduro on a democratic ally of the United States. They should make clear that Maduro cannot use the colectivos as a cutout force of deniable responsibility.

Trump's team should also make clear that all colectivo leaders will be held jointly responsible for any attack, even if it is conducted by one segregated commander. And most important of all, the White House should state that any attack represents the red-line for the use of U.S. military force against Maduro's regime. Yes, some will suggest that threatening that use of force is an extension beyond American interests. But by tying any hypothetical use of force to Maduro's conduct against Guaido, the U.S. would establish a powerful deterrence against Guaido's being targeted while also giving Maduro cause to avoid that conduct.

Trump must act. Venezuela's better future rests on the charismatic Guaido's continued activism and leadership.

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