Britain and European Union fail to close Brexit deal

BRUSSELS — British and European Union leaders said they were nearing a divorce deal even as divisions within fractious Britain kept them just short of a final bargain in negotiations Monday.

The elements of the deal — which would be the most significant step in Britain’s exit from the European Union since it officially filed papers in March — appeared to signal an acknowledgment by British negotiators that they have scant leverage in the negotiation. On issues ranging from what Britain will pay before exiting to a special status for Northern Ireland, British leaders were being pushed toward Europe’s demands after long vowing otherwise.

A bargain would pave the way for London to start negotiating its future trade relationship with the remaining 27 E.U. nations. But the emerging terms of the agreement raised questions about how British Prime Minister Theresa May would convince her own divided public about the best way forward. On Monday, she was forced to leave a day of Brussels meetings with no deal in hand following sharp objections from political forces back home. She promised consultations in London.

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The defeat was a reminder that the British prime minister is not just negotiating the exit with the Europeans but within her own party, with hard and soft Brexiteering Tories, and with Wales, Scotland, Ireland, Northern Ireland and the London mayor.

The Brexit bill of up to $65 billion will anger pro-Brexit leaders who want Britain to crash out of the bloc without paying a cent, for example. A floated pledge that Northern Ireland would be kept in regulatory “alignment” with the E.U. to avoid rekindling sectarian violence there raised immediate questions from pro-E.U. Scottish and London leaders who asked why they could not have similar deals for themselves.

“We were narrowing our positions to a huge extent today thanks to the British prime minister,” said European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker in brief remarks following the inconclusive lunchtime bargaining session. “This is not a failure, this is the start of the very last round. I’m very confident that we will reach an agreement in the course of this week.”

May also tried to put a good face on the talks, which she had to interrupt for phone calls with furious political factions in London.

“Both sides have been working hard in good faith,” May said. “I am also confident that we will conclude this positively.”

If Britain is to move on to negotiating its future trade deal with Europe before the end of the year, the divorce bill needs to be approved by the 27 remaining E.U. leaders at a summit in Brussels that begins Dec. 14.

But that first depends on May being able to sell it at home. Following an electoral wipeout in June, she leads a minority government that depends on the support of a tiny but influential Northern Ireland party that on Monday appeared to veto any possibility of a special status for Northern Ireland. Irish leaders want to avoid imposing a hard border to preserve the Good Friday Agreement that quelled decades of violence.

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May’s partner there, Arlene Foster, the head of the Democratic Unionist Party, offered a blunt warning: “We have been very clear. Northern Ireland must leave the E.U. on the same terms as the rest of the United Kingdom. We will not accept any form of regulatory divergence which separates Northern Ireland economically or politically from the rest of the United Kingdom.”

Still, if May gives ground, that opens the door to other regions of Britain wanting the same deal.

“If one part of UK can retain regulatory alignment with EU and effectively stay in the single market (which is the right solution for Northern Ireland) there is surely no good practical reason why others can’t,” wrote Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon on Twitter. London and Welsh leaders asked the same question.

At the center of the negotiations to this point has been the Brexit “divorce bill,” settling the tab of what Britain owes the E.U. before talks can begin on future trade agreements.

Europe has insisted that the U.K. honor its financial commitments for budgets and spending going forward even after it leaves the union in March 2019. As a member of the European Union, Britain made commitments both toward short-term expenses and for long-term items such as the pensions of E.U. bureaucrats or building projects that are funded over many years.

Europe has insisted that Britain cannot just walk away. Juncker compared it to ordering a round of drinks and then walking out of the bar.

Independent analysts have estimated that the Brexit divorce bill falls somewhere between $30 billion and $80 billion, depending on how generously one assesses the obligations.

May and her government have been loathe to name a figure, both because they are still in negotiations and because whatever the price, it won’t be popular at home. 

Many Brexit supporters have insisted London shouldn’t pay a penny, calling the demands a form of Euro-extortion. British Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson said this summer that Brussels can “go whistle” if it expected to see large sums of money.

But the reality is that if Britain wants a deal on trade, E.U. leaders say, it has to settle its affairs first.

European and British negotiators have also squabbled about the rights of the roughly 3 million E.U. citizens living in Britain. E.U. leaders want guarantees that citizens who moved to Britain will have the same rights as before the breakup — and they want the European Court of Justice in Luxembourg to have the final word to make sure Britain keeps that pledge.

The court’s oversight would be a bitter pill for British anti-E.U. campaigners who long chafed under its jurisdiction and said it was a loss of sovereignty to hand over decisions to judges in another country.

The last of the three main issues is the question of what to do about the border between the Irish Republic in the south, an independent nation that will remain in the European Union, and Northern Ireland, a part of the United Kingdom that will exit the European bloc along with England, Scotland and Wales.

After the Good Friday Agreements in 1998 brought a semblance of peace between unionists and republicans, the badlands between the two entities — once a perilous place of gunrunning and violence between Irish Republican Army cells and British soldiers — calmed down.

Today, the border between north and south is wide open. More than 180 formal roads cross the border — many more if you count farmers’ lanes and foot trails.

Irish leaders in Dublin said they did not want to derail Brexit — but they have been insistent that the border remain relatively open and soft. 

On Monday, that push appeared to break down the negotiations. Both sides said they hoped to conclude by the end of the week.

Booth reported from London.

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