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Israel's Netanyahu may weather corruption allegations for now, but the storm is brewing

 JERUSALEM — If Benjamin Netanyahu survives until the end of his current term, he will become Israel’s longest-serving prime minister. But now the question is: Can he make it?

During more than a decade as Israel’s leader, Netanyahu has gained a Teflon reputation, slipping through many political storms. But he has come face to face with his biggest challenge yet: accusations that he allegedly received around $280,000 in gifts in return for political favors, while also making a secret pact with an Israeli publisher for favorable coverage. 

On Tuesday, Israeli police said enough evidence exists to indict Netanyahu. The case how shifts to Israel’s attorney general to decide whether to proceed with charges.

The more immediate test is whether Netanyahu can hold together his six-party right-wing coalition — which showed little sign of crumbling on Wednesday.

His coalition partners said that they would hold tight until after Israel’s attorney general decides whether to proceed with charges. Meanwhile, his own party has also rallied to his support, for the moment at least. 

Netanyahu has also made clear that he does not plan on resigning, and is under no legal obligation to until after he’s convicted. On Wednesday, he slammed the police recommendations as biased, extreme and as full of holes as Swiss cheese. He has mocked the assertion that he would carry out political favors for alleged gifts such as cigars and champagne. 

[Netanyahu’s son brags about prostitutes in strip club rant]

Still, prime ministers have been brought down for less. His predecessor, Ehud Olmert, was forced to resign in 2008 and eventually served 16 months in jail for a real estate corruption case involving smaller sums. 

Few expect Netanyahu not to fight to the bitter end. The prime minister and his wife are “addicted to power,” said Ben Caspit, the author of two books about Netanyahu, including the recently published “The Netanyahu Years.”

“He does not think he did anything wrong and he really believes that no one else can lead Israel and he cannot be himself anywhere else but here as the prime minister of Israel,” Caspit added. 

A tough-talker when it comes to security, Netanyahu has presented himself as the only person capable of protecting the country in the volatile region. He also is seen by his backers as a safe pair of hands — an image that is likely to benefit him amid fears of a new war on Israel’s northern border as it Iran expands its presence in Syria. 

He reminded the public of his security credentials as he addressed the country in a televised speech Tuesday night, mentioning his years as the head of an elite commando unit and saying that he’s always on call when the “red phone” rings. 

“Until another party presents an alternative candidate for prime minister that can make people feel safe then nobody is going to push to oust him,” said Gil Hoffman, a political columnist at the Jerusalem Post newspaper. 

“People talk of his survival like he’s an injured animal,” Hoffman continued, “but he’s very successful.”

Now in his third consecutive term — and fourth overall — Netanyahu has managed to sideline political rivals, both inside and outside. In 2016, Netanyahu’s Likud party canceled its leadership race and declared him the winner after no one contested him. 

Even since police announced that he was a suspect in the two cases, he consistently polled as Israel’s favorite candidate for prime minister, a good 10 points ahead of his nearest rival.

Yet there is opposition.

Each week, demonstrators have gathered near Tel Aviv to call for his resignation, but have so far failed to gain critical mass. Netanyahu’s coalition partners will be watching the anti-Netanyahu ranks and poll numbers closely, Caspit said.

Netanyahu will be “praying for a storm” on Saturday because rain will damper demonstrations, he added. 

[He was once Netanyahu’s housekeeper. Now he wants to bring him down.]

But Hoffman said that the allegations have failed to rock the public — and public opinion remains the only thing likely to bring about Netanyahu’s downfall before an indictment. 

“The Israeli public thinks that all politicians are corrupt,” he said. “In Israel, there’s respect for people with elbows. He has them,” Hoffman said.

Opinion is split on just how long before a decision is reached on an indictment. Hoffman predicted it may well be next year before Netanyahu is forced to call an election, meaning Netanyahu would be months away from fully serving out his term. 

David Horovitz, the editor of the Times of Israel, points out that Israel’s Attorney General Avichai Mandelblit has overseen every step of the investigation, meaning that his decision may come swiftly. 

Police have recommended Netanyahu be indicted at least twice before, he said, though the previous cases have been “nowhere near as serious”, he said. 

While Netanyahu, for the moment at least, may be able to weather the upheavals over the current corruption cases — dubbed Case 1000 and Case 2000 — what really threatens to sink him is any implication he is linked to what is known as Case 3000. This one involves corruption related to multibillion dollar submarine deals with Germany. Members of Netanyahu’s inner circle have already been arrested, including his personal lawyer and cousin.

Netanyahu is expected to be summoned to give testimony, and Caspit said he would not be surprised if the investigators question him “under caution.”

After that, there is Case 4000, which is looking into favorable business dealings for the state telecom company Bezeq and is also circling closer to Netanyahu. If legal proceedings against him progress, his rivals may soon smell blood. 

In response, Netanyahu will likely turn to his familiar strategy of populism, said Gideon Rahat, a political science professor at the Hebrew University in Jerusalem, drawing comparisons with President Trump and scandal-wracked former Italian prime minister Silvio Berlusconi.

Netanyahu’s party is ‘going against the media, courts and against the intellectuals and the left,” he said. “Supposedly being for the people.” 

“He will do all he can do to avoid becoming the second prime minister to go to jail,” he said. 

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