ROME—Italy entered a period of political instability on Monday after national elections boosted populists but failed to produce a winner with enough support to patch together a parliamentary majority.
With about 95% of votes counted early Monday, the antiestablishment 5 Star Movement was projected to win 32% of the vote—exceeding expectations and emerging as Italy’s largest party.
The 5 Star Movement, which has won a large following by denouncing Italy’s conventional politicians as corrupt, has long been hostile to the idea of forming governing pacts with other parties. Despite some signs of greater flexibility recently, many observers believe a government led by the movement will be difficult to assemble.
“Nobody can govern without the 5 Star,” Riccardo Fraccaro, a leading party member, told a news conference after the vote.
On paper, the 5 Star could form a government with another populist group, the anti-immigrant League.
Such a populist coalition, which would shock Italy’s and Europe’s establishment and possibly challenge European Union rules on economic policy, faces political hurdles, however, given major differences between the parties’ ideology and political strategies up to now.
The 5 Star’s growth, and the fact that antiestablishment parties won just over half of all votes, are likely to raise concerns in the EU political about the strength of anti-incumbency feeling in one of the bloc’s founder members.
The conservative coalition that includes the Forza Italia party of former prime minister Silvio Berlusconi was projected to win about 37% of the vote, falling short of a majority in either chamber of parliament.
Forza Italia itself emerged as one of the big losers on the night, getting 14% the vote, about four points less than its main ally, the League.
The center-left Democratic Party, mainstay of Italy’s government in recent years, suffered worse-than-expected losses and was projected to win only around 19%. The drubbing was another sign of how Europe’s moderate center-left parties are struggling to maintain their once-broad appeal in an age of populism.
“It’s clear that this is a resounding defeat,” said Maurizio Martina, a minister in the outgoing government and a close ally of the Democratic Party leader Matteo Renzi.
Weeks and possibly months of wrangling beckon before Italy has a government. Failure to form any stable administration, leading to repeat elections, is also possible.
The new parliament will meet for the first time on March 23, after which Italy’s head of state, President Sergio Mattarella, will begin consultations with parties to see if it any majority can be put together.
Traditionally, the first shot at forming a government has gone to the biggest party, which has normally coincided with the biggest electoral alliance. This time, it isn’t clear how Mr. Mattarella will handle the competing claims of the center-right alliance and the 5 Star Movement that they should lead the country.
Luigi Di Maio, the 5 Star’s 31-year-old leader, hadn’t commented yet by early Monday, although he posted a picture on Facebook exulting and hugging other party leaders.
Mr. Di Maio in recent weeks began to walk back the 5 Star’s pledge not to join up with other political groups. All eyes are now on how flexible Mr. Di Maio is prepared to be about sharing power.
His options may be limited in any case.
The Democrats’ leader in the outgoing Chamber of Deputies, the lower house of parliament, said the party would not support a government headed by the 5 Star Movement.
Before the election many pundits had speculated on the possibility of a grand coalition between Mr. Berlusconi and Mr. Renzi’s Democratic Party, but the parties together fall far short of getting a majority.
Mr. Berlusconi, who hasn’t commented publicly on the results, is barred from holding office until next year due to a conviction for tax evasion. He said Forza Italia had been penalized because he wasn’t able to be a candidate, according to Italian newspaper La Repubblica.
Write to Eric Sylvers at eric.sylvers@wsj.com and Marcus Walker at marcus.walker@wsj.com
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