Orban Scores Crushing Hungarian Win in Boost to EU Populists

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban scored a crushing election victory to clinch a fourth term in a boost to Europe’s populist forces that are challenging the European Union’s multi-cultural, democratic values.

Orban’s Fidesz party was on track to repeat the two-thirds majority it won in the country’s previous two elections, allowing it to change any law without opposition support. His anti-immigration stance allowed him to eclipse a fractured opposition that decried the authoritarian approach of Orban, who’s become a role model for anti-establishment parties from Italy to Poland.

Viktor Orban celebrates in Budapest on April 9.
Photographer: Akos Stiller/Bloomberg

“We want to call out what’s ailing this continent,” Orban told Echo TV after claiming victory in Sunday’s election. “We don’t want to go against Europe and the EU, we want Europe and the EU to be strong and successful. But before that we need to be honest about what’s hurting us.”

The victory opens the way for Orban, 54, to become Hungary’s longest-serving prime minister and, if he finishes his term, to rule the country of 10 million for half of its post-communist existence. A supermajority may embolden policies that have included cracking down on civil society and squeezing media and the courts, which have put Orban at odds with the EU. His unapologetically anti-Muslim stance may also act as a model for others in Europe.

“Orban won this election on his anti-immigrant campaign, and populist parties across Europe will likely take notice of this winning formula,” said political analyst Tamas Boros of the Policy Solutions think tank in Budapest. “The strong mandate will likely also give Orban ammunition for his fights within the EU.”

Fidesz won 133 of parliament’s 199 seats, according to results with almost 99 percent of votes counted, the same number as four years ago.

Orban’s warning that Muslim immigrants would "overrun" Europe follows gains made by like-minded parties across the continent over the past year, including Austria’s Freedom Party and the League and the Five Star Movement in Italy. Hungary, like its other central European peers, has no significant Muslim population. The European Parliament is set to vote later this year on whether it should strip Budapest of its EU voting rights over backsliding on democracy.

“We want Hungary to remain a Hungarian country,” Orban said. “We have a culture, which we call a Christian culture. This is how we live our lives. This is our world, our culture, our lifestyle. These are our life principles. We want to defend these and we don’t want others to change them.”

Fidesz Dominance

Orban's party set to win two-thirds of parliament's 199 seats

Source: Hungarian Elections Office

After building a fence on Hungary’s southern border to keep out refugees, Orban focused his campaign on billionaire George Soros, saying the pro-democracy campaigner led a global network working to spread immigrants to the western world. Orban’s cabinet has vowed to approve a “Stop Soros” legislation package after the election. Soros rejects the accusations and his Open Society Foundation said the measures would “criminalize” civil society.

Orban, who is one of the EU’s strongest supporters of Russian President Vladimir Putin, also pledged to hold opposition parties “morally, politically and legally” responsible, following reports from media outlets and non-government organizations alleging state graft. While the ruling party has denied the accusations, in the past four years, Hungary tumbled to 66th place in Transparency International’s annual survey of perceived corruption, the second-worst in the EU, from 48th.

Investor Support

That has done little to dissuade investors, but many had rooted for only a slim Orban victory in the hope it would lead to economic stability. A supermajority, which will allow him to change the constitution, may encourage him to deepen his conflicts with his European peers and further overhaul Hungary’s democratic institutions in his push for an “illiberal” state modeled on Russia and Turkey.

“The market reaction will be subdued, with the continuity of economic policy cause for relief,” said Adam Bakos, who manages 2.5 billion euros ($3.1 billion) as head of fixed income at Aegon NV. “But the margin of the victory is a potential source of concern, as it opens the way to clashes between the government and the EU.”

The forint weakened 0.2 percent to 312.59 per euro by 6:57 a.m. in Budapest, the worst performance among 24 emerging-market currencies tracked by Bloomberg.

Turnout in the election was about 70 percent, near a record. A divided opposition had said that level of participation would lift their chances, but a get-out-the vote campaign also pulled more people to polling stations in the countryside, where Fidesz has strong support, the results showed.

The Jobbik party came in second with 26 seats, while a Socialist-led alliance came in third with 20. While the opposition tried to capitalize on voter anger over perceived cronyism, parties failed to seal a pact to compete together on the national level, giving Fidesz the advantage in the winner-take-all district races that make up most of the mandates.

— With assistance by Gabriella Lovas

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