Russia and Israel carry on their Syrian tango — for now

On the same day that Russia and Turkey agreed to the next steps regarding Idlib and a demilitarized zone that avoids a battle for the city for now, a Russian Ilyushin Il-20 reconnaissance plane was shot down by a Syrian S-200 battery in the wake of an airstrike by four Israeli F-16 jets on Syrian facilities in Latakia province. Immediately, tensions rose over what may happen next, given the confluence of actors in this hot conflict environment. Naturally, conflicting stories of what exactly happened resulted from the news of Moscow’s plane falling off radar screens over the Mediterranean Sea.

Remarkably, despite the super-charged geopolitical environment, this event was resolved with a certain decorum unseen before. This diplomatic achievement is based on the fact that Israel and Russia have a remarkably close relationship, in which Moscow has not, until now, interfered with Israeli air operations in Syria. That agreement seems to be holding.

There is no doubt that the strategic relationship between Russia and Israel is different than between Moscow and Ankara. The agreements reached between Vladimir Putin and Benjamin Netanyahu in the wake of the Israeli prime minister’s visit to Moscow to meet with the Russian president for Victory Day in May have allowed Israeli jets greater latitude in their pinpoint targeting of higher value Iranian ground targets in Syria without Russian interference.

Both Putin and Netanyahu were sharp but cordial in the wake of the downing of the plane. Putin said of the incident off the coast of Syria: “It looks most likely in this case that it was a chain of tragic chance events, because an Israeli aircraft did not shoot down our aircraft. But, without any doubt, we need to seriously get to the bottom of what happened.” In response, Netanyahu expressed regret at the loss of 15 Russian personnel, stressing Syria was to blame. These comments were given knowing that Russia said it was given less than a minute’s warning by Israel ahead of the strikes, which was not enough time to get the military surveillance plane out of the way. However, the Israeli jets were already back in Israeli airspace when the Il-20 was shot down by Syrian anti-aircraft fire.

Putin recognizes that Netanyahu wanted to send a message to the Syrian regime in the direct aftermath of the Idlib agreement between Moscow and Ankara. But Israel also wanted to send a message to Iran and Hezbollah that, despite Idlib, there would be more targeted strikes.

Naturally, Russia will take the necessary actions to protect itself. Moscow’s next move will be to beef up its forces and protection for aerial assets. Putin said the “retaliatory measures” would be “aimed first and foremost at further ensuring the safety of our military personnel.” The loss of a Russian aircraft with such identification, friend or foe (IFF) failure is likely to affect future capability and performance during any other Israeli air operation. These types of failures tell Israel and other actors with sophisticated air force capabilities of how clumsy Russian-Syrian de-confliction is in such an environment.

The inability to adequately identify the Russian aircraft by Syrian air systems is a major operational failure

Dr. Theodore Karasik

Syria is likely to face Moscow’s ire as a result of this event. Since Syria’s 44th Air Defense Battalion is the one that shot down the Russian aircraft, the Russian Military Police has reportedly arrested all of the battalion elements — “from the Battalion Commander to even the youngest soldier” — and taken them to the prison at Hmeimim Air Base. To be sure, the loss of a Russian aircraft with 15 on board is a failure of the Russian-Syrian military relationship in terms of training. The inability to adequately identify the Russian aircraft by Syrian air systems is a major operational failure.

The Syrian S-200 operators undoubtedly experienced a catastrophic failure, which raises questions about Russian air operations in the immediate aftermath of this event. Losing one of these aircraft, which is likely equipped with Moscow’s latest technology, in this active war zone means Russia will need to focus on the immediate future of Syrian air defense, and also replace its lost intelligence asset. That means, for Israel, perhaps more opportunities to either send messages or hit other Iranian targets. In other words, the status quo in terms of a Russian-allowed alleyway for Israeli aircraft remains open.

Overall, the Syrian shoot-down of a Russian aircraft reflects very poorly on interoperability between the two country’s militaries. This is not a new phenomenon for Russian and Syrian military operations and, because of the nature of the battlefield, it may occur again. In this particular case involving the Il-20, and because of unique circumstances, agreements between Putin and Netanyahu helped to temper down a potential blow-up. This event is going to allow Israel and Russia to continue their mutually beneficial strategic tango in the Syrian theater despite the testy accusatory rhetoric from politicians.

• Dr. Theodore Karasik is a senior adviser to Gulf State Analytics in Washington, D.C. He is a former RAND Corporation Senior Political Scientist who lived in the UAE for 10 years, focusing on security issues. Twitter: @tkarasik

Disclaimer: Views expressed by writers in this section are their own and do not necessarily reflect Arab News' point-of-view

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