Where Europe Would Be Hurt Most by a No-Deal Brexit - New York Times

Britain’s economy

is nearly five times

more exposed to

Brexit than the rest of

the European Union.

12%

Percent of region’s local economy exposed to Brexit

A manufacturing hub in southern Germany, Stuttgart, could face steep tariffs on its exports to Britain.

A no-deal Brexit would hardly matter to southern Italy, whose local economy has few ties with Britain.

Britain’s economy

is nearly five times

more exposed to

Brexit than the rest of

the European Union.

12%

Percent of region’s local economy exposed to Brexit

A manufacturing hub

in southern Germany,

Stuttgart, could face

steep tariffs on its

exports to Britain.

A no-deal Brexit would hardly matter to southern Italy, whose local economy has few ties with Britain.

Britain’s economy

is nearly five times

more exposed to

Brexit than the rest of

the European Union.

A manufacturing

hub in Germany,

Stuttgart, could

face steep tariffs

on its exports

to Britain.

12%

A no-deal Brexit would

hardly matter to south

ern Italy, whose local

economy has few ties

with Britain.

Percent of region’s

local economy

exposed to Brexit

Source: City-REDI Institute, University of Birmingham

With only days until the deadline for Britain to leave the European Union, the political negotiations for a withdrawal agreement remain stuck – and the economic concerns are growing.

By most accounts, Britain's economy would be hammered if it crashed out of the European Union without a deal. The gloomiest projections show that Britain would lose 9.3 percent of its gross domestic product, housing prices could sink by 30 percent and the pound could fall against the dollar to $1.10. (The pound, seen as a barometer of confidence in Brexit, is now at about $1.29.)

But the impact would also be painful for the 27 remaining member states in the European Union. Even though the bloc is a single market, each country has a unique relationship with Britain as far as the movement of goods, services, people and capital.

The regions most exposed to a no-deal Brexit would experience issues ranging from disruptions in trade to costly tariffs to fragmented supply chains and restrictions on services.

In the political negotiations, the Europeans have the stronger position. But experts agree that hardly anyone wins if a withdrawal deal isn’t struck – and some countries could lose quite badly.

No more free trade

The immediate risk of a no-deal exit is that it would leave Britain and the European Union without a trade agreement, forcing them to default to the tariffs set by the World Trade Organization.

Any price increases from tariffs are likely to be absorbed by consumers, and for some goods – meat, dairy and tobacco products – tariffs are upward of 15 percent.

One study looking at the impact on trade of a no-deal Brexit found a wide range of exposure across Europe – but with every member of the bloc facing a possible reduction in trade.

Where exports could fall, given their share of trade with Britain

Ireland

Slovakia

Belgium

Spain

Germany

Cars make up

almost half of

Slovakia's

exports to Britain.

Denmark

Portugal

Poland

Netherlands

Romania

Czech Republic

Italy

Malta

Tariffs on certain

meats can reach 50%.

It is Denmark’s top

export to Britain.

France

Greece

Cyprus

Hungary

Lithuania

Sweden

Bulgaria

Austria

Luxembourg

Pharmaceuticals

are Croatia’s top

export to Britain,

but they face low

or even zero tariffs.

Latvia

Slovenia

Finland

Croatia

Estonia

Where exports could fall, given their share of trade with Britain

Ireland

Slovakia

Belgium

Spain

Germany

Cars make up almost half of Slovakia's

exports to Britain.

Denmark

Portugal

Poland

Netherlands

Romania

Czech Rep.

Italy

Malta

Tariffs on certain

meats can reach 50%.

It is Denmark’s top

export to Britain.

France

Greece

Cyprus

Hungary

Lithuania

Sweden

Bulgaria

Austria

Luxembourg

Pharmaceuticals

are Croatia’s top

export to Britain,

but they face low

or zero tariffs.

Latvia

Slovenia

Finland

Croatia

Estonia

Source: Economic & Social Research Institute

Ireland is the most exposed to tariffs and changes in trade. Nearly 14 percent of its exports go directly to Britain, and the majority of all of its trade passes through the country at some point. In addition, two of its top exports – meat and dairy products – face some of the highest tariffs.

Germany exports a wide variety of industrial products to Britain, including almost 800 ,000 cars a year – or about 14 percent of all the cars it makes domestically.

The Netherlands’ trade with Britain is significant but partly inflated by the so-called “Rotterdam effect” – goods flowing through the country’s large port, though they may originate (or are destined for) other locations.

Europe relies on workers in Britain

Theresa May has assured those already living or working in Britain that they will be able to remain in the country legally, but in the event of no deal, restrictions or requirements for new migrants could come sooner than planned.

This could affect European Union countries that rely on workers abroad to send money home. Britain is the third-largest remittance-sending country in the European Union, and in 2017, migrants from the bloc sent home about $9 billion.

Where migrants working in Britain send money home

Finland

Sweden

Estonia

Latvia

Lithuania

United

Kingdom

Ireland

Poland

$1.1b

Germany

$1.3b

Slovakia

Romania

Hungary

France

$1.8b

Bulgaria

Portugal

Italy

Spain

Greece

Cyprus

Malta

Where migrants working in Britain send money home

Finland

Sweden

Latvia

United

Kingdom

Lithuania

Poland

$1.1b

Germany

$1.3b

Hungary

France

$1.8b

Bulgaria

Italy

Spain

Greece

Cyprus

Malta

Source: The World Bank; 2017

There are almost one million people from Poland living and working in Britain, and it’s one of the largest recipients of remittances. Polish migrants working there sent home more than $1 billion in 2017; so did migrants from France and Germany working in Britain.

In Hungary, government officials have said they hope migrants will return home to work.

Lithuania has the largest percentage of its population living abroad in Britain – nearly 8 percent – many of whom came over in 2004 after the country joined the European Union.

The financial center fragments

With the most developed financial center in the European Union, Britain is relied upon for services including lending, currency trading, insurance contracts and asset management.

Financial firms have been busy setting up legal entities in the European Union so that they can continue to provide these services even after Brexit. And British lawmakers, aware that Britain’s clout as a financial hub and gateway could be at risk, have tried to mitigate the effects of the country leaving with no deal: a temporary permissions regime that will give European Union firms access to the British market and a deal with Switzerland giving over continued access to each other’s insurance markets.

The European Union has also passed regulation that will allow certain activities like the clearing of derivatives to continue for a limited time.

But these measures are unlikely to make up for the loss of so-called passporting rights, which allow institutions based in Britain to offer a huge array of financial services.

Banks in Britain, for example, play an important role in lending across the entire bloc. Borrowing from these banks could be limited or become more expensive after Brexit because it’ll cost more to route through Britain without passporting.

Share of lending by banks located in Britain

30%

Malta

Ireland

Netherlands

France

Households and

businesses in Malta

rely on British-based

banks for almost

40% of foreign lending.

Germany

Greece

Sweden

Luxembourg

Spain

Finland

Italy

Denmark

Cyprus

Poland

Austria

Portugal

Belgium

Czech Republic

Slovenia

Hungary

Croatia

Lithuania

Slovakia

Latvia

Romania, Bulgaria and Estonia

see less than 1% of foreign lending

come from banks in Britain.

Romania

Bulgaria

Estonia

Share of lending by banks located in Britain

30%

Malta

Ireland

Netherlands

France

Households and

businesses in Malta rely on British-based

banks for almost 40% of foreign lending.

Germany

Greece

Sweden

Luxembourg

Spain

Finland

Italy

Denmark

Cyprus

Poland

Austria

Portugal

Belgium

Czech Rep.

Slovenia

Hungary

Croatia

Lithuania

Slovakia

Romania, Bulgaria and Estonia see less than 1% of foreign lending come from banks in Britain.

Latvia

Romania

Bulgaria

Estonia

Source: Bank for International Settlements; 2016

But Britain’s departure could also prove beneficial to the European Union countries that succeed in bringing home some firms currently based in Britain. The cost of setting up shop in new locations and the eventual loss of efficiency, however, are expected to outweigh the gains from relocations and could push up the cost of financial services in the long run, say analysts at PricewaterhouseCoopers.

Cities like Frankfurt, Dublin, Paris and Amsterdam will benefit from the thousands of jobs that are expected to shift from Britain. Germany and Ireland have been popular for activities like banking, while Luxembourg has attracted asset managers.

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