The Forecast of Sea Level Rise: What Rising Seas Mean for Dana Point and Other Stakeholders - Dana Point Times

Lillian Boyd, Dana Point Times

Without appropriate planning, proactive policies and preparation, sea level rise in Dana Point could mean beach loss, flooding and damage to coastal developments, according to a recent City of Dana Point study.

Studies, such as the latest Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment (SLRVA), are the beginning stages to developing science and initiating preparation, says John Ciampa, the city’s senior planner.

The City of Dana Point held a public workshop to present the findings of its SLRVA on Dec. 4, which explored a variety of different scenarios and projections. The private coastal engineering firm Moffat & Nichol helped conduct the workshop alongside Ciampa and the firm Dudek. The workshop came within a week of the state Legislative Analyst’s Office (LAO) urging for SLR preparation.

Graphic: City of Dana Point

“California’s coast could experience SLR ranging from about half of 1 foot by 2030 up to about 7 feet by 2100,” the LAO report states. “Periodic events like storms and high tides will produce even higher water levels and increase the risk of flooding. Rising seas will also erode coastal cliffs, dunes, and beaches, which will affect shorefront structures and recreation.”

The LAO is a non-partisan governmental agency that provides policy guidance to the state Legislature.

The LAO report asserts that most development along the coast is owned by either private entities or local governments and that most policies and decisions are made by local governments. Dana Point coast, however, is mostly owned by state, county and private entities.

“The next step is making stakeholders aware and helping everyone understand there’s a need,” Ciampa said, in reference to agencies working together. “The next phase will address potential impacts. Agencies will need to follow science and update assessments accordingly. Policies will need to be flexible in order to effectively address sea level rise.”

Earlier this year, in a California Coastal Commission (CCC) meeting, Mary Matella, a CCC environmental scientist, gave a presentation on how sea level rise impacts Orange County and what coastal cities are doing about it.

Local and regional adaptation planning efforts will be critical for ensuring that coastal communities can be resilient to sea level rising in the coming years, Matella said. The CCC’s Local Coastal Program (LCP) is a planning tool used by local governments to guide development in partnership with the CCC. LCP’s contain the ground rules for future development and protection of coastal resources in the 76 coastal cities and counties.

The LCP grant program is in its sixth year and offers funding for cities to assess vulnerable coastal areas that could be threatened by sea level rise and provides the opportunity for each city to update its LCP. The study is meant to identify areas of the coastal region that are vulnerable to hazards while considering policies and programs to mitigate such threats.

The CCC and partnering cities use the program CoSMoS 3.0 to assess where a community is most at risk. The software looks at built assets such as houses, roadways and highways, as well as natural assets, including beaches. The modeling tool was developed by the US Geological Survey.

“The California Coastal Commission wants us to look at multiple scenarios so that we can be aware and prepared for potential impacts,” Ciampa said.

For the 2050 time horizon, the “likely” range of SLR is between 0.7-1.2 feet, which means there is a 66% probability that SLR will fall within this range. Under a worst-case extreme SLR scenario, 2.8 feet could occur by 2050. At 2100, the likely range of SLR is 1.6-3.6 feet, with a worst-case projection of 10.2 feet, the report states.

“The wide range of projections at the end of the century illustrate the need for adaptation planning when evaluating projects with life expectancies of 75-100 years,” the report says.

The city’s SLRVA determined that there is a 66% probability that sea levels will rise from 1.6-3.6 feet by 2050.

The SLRVA divvied up Dana Point’s coast into three sections: North Dana Point, Central Dana Point (Dana Point Harbor) and South Dana Point. The study explored the potential impacts of a 3.3-foot rise in sea level to each of these sections.

For North Dana Point, there would be minimal sandy beach present at Dana Strand, potential wave damage to the coastal access trail along Salt Creek Beach, storm-related flooding of Monarch Bay Club and increased cliff erosion.

There would be flooding throughout low-lying areas of Dana Point Harbor, minimal beach area in the harbor and further wave transmission through breakwaters.

The harbor is undergoing a revitalization to bring upgrades and new development to the area. Joe Ueberroth, of Bellwether Financial Group, is working to restructure the marina aspect of the harbor, in conjunction with Dana Point Harbor Partners. He says the partners are mindful of the numerous contributing factors that will impact design of the revitalization.

“Bellwether Financial Group and The Marina at Dana Point are taking into account potential sea level rise,” Ueberroth said. “Combining our latest technology with rigorous planning and testing, Dana Point Harbor’s docks will stand the test of sea level rise, and time.”

As for South Dana Point, which includes private residences on Beach Road in Capistrano Beach, the report anticipates chronic beach erosion and minimal beach area. Southern Doheny State Beach parking, residential beachfront development and Capistrano Beach Park will be exposed to wave action daily.

Capistrano Beach Park has already seen the impacts of wave exposure. Inclement weather and high tides in 2018 led to damage and demolition of its basketball court and restroom structure.

The 189 homes on Beach Road, in a community known as Capistrano Bay District, sit on the beach, adjacent to county-owned Capistrano Beach. Beach Road properties are seeing the impacts of coastal erosion, Capistrano Bay District Manager Donal Russell said in a previous interview.

“What we see is long-term loss of beach from wave action in the summertime. It’s a different angle that cuts into the sand on the beach, causing shoreline erosion,” Russell said. “I suppose, decades from now, we could see sea level rise impacts, but right now we’re seeing soft swells have more energy as a result of climate change.”

A portion of the homes on Beach Road are deemed legal nonconforming.

“The best way to make properties resilient to the potential impacts of sea level rise would be for properties to conform to Dana Point’s building and zoning codes,” Ciampa said.

Modifications that yield more than a 10% change to the structure are required to meet Dana Point building and zoning code, which often means the entire building would need to be modified.

According to the LOA report, rising sea levels pose a serious and costly threat. Between $8-10 billion of existing property will by underwater by 2050 and $6-10 billion will be at risk at high tide. But for every dollar spent preparing in advance of disasters, $6 in post-disaster losses are avoided.

The LOA report also states that the progress of SLR preparation across the state’s coastal communities has been slow.

“Few coastal communities have yet begun implementing projects to respond to the threat of rising seas,” the LOA report states. “Coastal communities must increase both the extent and pace of SLR preparation efforts if California is to avoid the most severe, costly, and disruptive impacts in the coming decades.”

Planning ahead means adaptation actions can be strategic and phased and reportedly helps buy time before more extreme responses are needed. Preparation provides opportunities to test approaches and learn what works best, and may make overall adaptation efforts more affordable and improve their odds for success, LOA says.  

The next decade could be a crucial time period for taking action to prepare for SLR. On a state level, Governor Gavin Newsom, as well as members of the Legislature, have indicated interest in placing a bond on the 2020 ballot to provide further funding for climate adaptation initiatives. The next step for the city will be to complete the second phase of assessment. 

Ciampa says that phase includes developing policies and involving stakeholders. The city will continue working with Moffatt & Nichol, which CCC funding will help provide for. 

“Cities will likely need to be doing updates as the science improves,” Ciampa said. “Once we have better technology and better projections, we’ll have a better idea of what solutions we’ll need to work toward. And the science is only getting better as time goes on.”

The CCC wants cities to look at multiple scenarios so that there is awareness and preparation for potential impacts, he added. Coastal engineers will need to identify where sand can be placed in a location where it is most likely to remain. Not losing the sand to one storm is key, Ciampa said.

“As issues grow in terms of erosion, the next step is making stakeholders aware and helping everyone understand there’s a need,” Ciampa said.

The vulnerability assessment in its entirety, as well as the presentation that was conducted on Dec. 4, are available at danapoint.org.

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